INDUSTRIAL STOCKS MAIN TREND OR MAJOR SWING

The Industrial Curve this year is based on the Dow Jones' 30 Industrial Stock Averages. Previously the Dow Jones' Averages, which are published by the Wall Street Journal, were based on 20 industrial stocks, but in the latter part of 1928, they changed from 20 to 30 and our Curve is based on the 30 Industrial Stocks. The stocks now used in these Averages are: Allied Chemical, Am.Can, Am.Smelting, Am Sugar, Am.Tobacco B, Atlantic Refining. Bethlehem Steel, Chrysler, Gen. Electric, Gen. Motors, Gen. Ry, Signal, Goodrich, Int. Harvester, Int. Nickel, Nash Motors, Mack Trucks, North American, Paramount, Postum, Radio, Sears Roebuck, Standard Oil of N. J., Texas Corp. Texas Gulf, Union Carbide, U.S. Steel, Victor Tk., Westinghouse, Woolworth, Wright Aero.

From the low level in August 1921, to the high level in November 1928, the 20 Industrial Stocks recorded an advance of about 230 points, the greatest advance in history. The fact that these Averages advanced nearly 100 points during 1928 is unparalleled in history. This year is like 1906, 1916, and 1919, when such violent fluctuations were witnessed and large volume of trading took place, only to be followed the year after by a panicky decline.

The minimum between extreme high and extreme low during 1929 for the 30 Industrial stocks will not be less than 50 points and the maximum fluctuation may be as much as 90 to 100 points. This means that many of the high-priced stocks will fluctuate 150 to 200 points between extreme high and extreme low prices. The lower priced stocks will move in a narrower range and will not make as much as the minimum between extreme high and low.

Most of the Dow Jones’ 30 Industrial Stocks will follow Curve #1 very closely. The high point for most of these stocks will be reached around January 12th. After that time, prices should gradually work lower and the trend should be down until around March 28th to 29th, when bottom will be reached for another bull campaign. Many stocks will reach bottom around March 14th to 15th and remain in a narrow trading range until the bull campaign starts in April. When the advance gets under way, some stocks will reach top for the year in May, others in June and some of the others, which are behind the market, will reach final high in August as shown by Curve #1 and Curve #2. A large majority of stocks will not go any higher than the highs reached in the month of July. After July and early August, the main trend will be down and some sharp declines will take place, prices working lower and reaching first bottom around September 27th to 28th. From this level follows a fair - sized rally and a trading market running into the early part of November. After that, the big bear campaign will get under way and stocks continue to work lower, reaching extreme low level for the year around December 23rd to 24th.

There are now over 1500 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange and often in one day over 800 different issues are traded in. Therefore, the 30 Industrials and 20 Rails do not always represent the main trend or curve of the market and many stocks will run in opposition to this trend. That is why I am giving you Curve #1 and Curve #2 on Industrial stocks.

Industrial Curve #2 represents the stocks which are in strong position and many of which are not included in the Dow Jones’ 30 Industrials. Many of these stocks have declined during 1928 and have been accumulating. They will advance while other stocks decline. Curve #2 indicates low around January 2nd fol­lowed by an advance up to January 31st; a decline to February 7th and high of next rally around February 15th. Then prices will work lower, making bottom around March 11th. Watch the stocks that make bottom at this time, as they will be the ones to lead the advance. After the low in March, this Curve continues to work higher with only moderate reactions until high is reached around May 17th to 18th. From this top a bigger decline will take place. The last low is indicated around June 22nd. From this level the stocks, which are in strong position and behind the market will gradually work higher, some of them reaching top during July while others will not reach final top until August 14th to 15th. After this top is reached heavy liquidation will start and prices will work lower from every rally. First decline culminates around September 30th; then a rally making top on October 2nd, followed by a decline to October 24th; then a final top around November 2nd to 4th, followed by a big decline, reaching bottom around December 18th to 20th; then a rally to the end of the year.

Below is a list of stocks in strong position, which should follow closely Industrial Curve #2. They will be the best stocks to buy on reactions:

	Ajax Rubber Amerada Am. Agri. Ch. Am. Beet Sug. Am. Bosch Mag Am. Brake Sh.. Am. Ship & Com. Am. Steel Fdy. Am. Sugar Am. Woolen Anaconda Armour A Assd. Dry Gds. Austin Nichols Barnsdall A Beechnut Bethlehem St. Booth F. Briggs Cal. & Hecla Central Alloy Cerro de Pasco Chandler Clev Chile Copper Congoleum Cons. Textile Sun Oil:p Am. & For. Pr.	Cont. Baking A Cont. Motors Cuban Am. Sug. Curtiss Aero. Davison Chem. Dome Mines Fisk Rubber Foundation Glidden Goodrich Goodyear Granby Gt. Nor. Ore Gt. West. Sug. Hupp Indian Ref. Inspiration Int. Comb. Eng. Int. Mar. Pfd. Jones Tea Kelsey Hayes Kennecott Kresge S.S. Lago Oil Loews Loft Elec. Storage	Lee Rubber Lehn & Fink Louisiana Oil Mack Trucks Magma Marland Mex. Seab. Mid-Cont. P. Nat. Pr & Lt. Nevada Cons. N.Y. Airbrake Otis Steel Packard Panhandle Pan Pete B Park Utah Pathe Ex A Phillips P. Pillsbury Fl. Reo Motors Republic Iron Reynolds Spg. Royal Dutch Shell Union Simms Pete Sinclair Oi Maracaibo	So. Porto Rico Sug. Spicer Mfg S.O. of Calif S.O. of N.J S.O. of N.Y Tennessee Cop Texas Corp Texas Pac. C. & O Texas Gulf Sul Transcont. Oil U.S. Rubber U.S. Smelt Va. Car. Chem Ward Banking B Warner Pictures Westinghouse Elec White Eagle White Motors Willys Overland Wilson & Co Worth Pump Wright Aero Yellow Truck Producers & Ref Elec. Pr & Lt. Mallinson Superior Oil
	The stocks given in the list below are the ones, which have been distributed and are the best to sell short around the dates indicated for the top on Curve #1. These stocks will have the greatest decline, especially in the early part of the year and again from August to December when a big bear campaign is indicated.

Allis Chalmers Allied Chemical American Can Am. Intern’l Am. Linseed Am. Locomotive Am. Radiator Am. Smelting A.M. Byers

Chrysler Coca Cola Cont. Can Corn Products Dupont Sears Roebuck Gen. Motors Hudson Motors Houston Oil

Int. Harvester Kroger Mathieson Al Mont. Ward Reynolds “B” Sears Roebuck Shattuck F.G. Stewart Warner Studebaker

Timken Tobacco Products Union Carbide U.S. Ind. Alcohol U.S. Steel Vanadium Victor Talking Woolworth