1929 PREVIEW

JANUARY, FEBRUARY AND MARCH

While the New Year opens under favourable conditions and you will hear much about great prosperity and the newspapers will be optimistic for the future, the bright outlook is likely to be clouded with war or complications in foreign countries. Trouble is threatened to the United States thru Mexico or Japan. Peace pacts are likely to be broken. Spain and France will arouse opposition. Agitation over religion in some of the foreign countries will disturb peaceful conditions.

Great storms are indicated in the south and south western parts of the United States during the early spring. Much loss and damage by fire. In March when President Hoover takes office, if some law has not already been passed, he will advocate having one passed to help the farmers. This will cause an advance in commodities and in turn help agricultural stocks. Airplane concerns will make rapid progress in the spring and from a panicky depressed stock market in February and March, a spring bull campaign will take place. Steel business will be quite active. Electrical concerns will do a large business and there will be a boom in oil stocks.

APRIL, MAY AND JUNE

The spring quarter indicates unfavourable weather for starting crops. Storms, rains, and danger of a tidal wave along the Gulf of Mexico. Commodity prices will advance and business in general will improve. A wild wave of speculation in oils, coppers, rubbers, sugars and airplane stocks will make this a very active period. Along in May or June, foreign competition will begin to hurt business in some lines in this country. This will cause a depressing effect on stocks and they will decline.

JULY, AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER

During this period, some of the foreign countries will prosper and we will have great competition to face. War or trouble with foreign countries, is threatened. A very mixed market during this period with some stocks advancing while others decline. Speculation will shift from stocks to commodities on account of short crops. Foreign crops will be short in some of the countries. Storms and unseasonable weather will cause damage.

August will be marked by many electric storms and damage by fire. Some new discoveries will help chemical stocks around this time. Germany and France will make great strides in aviation.

September: - A great change in business conditions will set in around this time which will cause a severe decline in the is stock market. Textile and woollen stocks will prosper and these will be among the last stocks to advance. During the months of April, August, September and October, there is danger of war and trouble thru foreign countries.

OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER

Settlement of the debt question with France will again come to the front. Other countries will arrange some favourable agreement in regard to trade, which will cause business depression here. A great change in the business outlook will set in as we near the end of the year. Corporation earnings will show depreciation and be disappointing.

The month of October indicates some advance in mining stocks. The oil and sugar stocks will be among the last to advance around this time. During November the chemicals and oils will have a boom for a short time and make final top. In December foreign business with South American countries will be good, but we will have competition from some of the European countries.

MONTHLY INDICATIONS

JANUARY

The New Year starts off under favourable conditions, but profit taking will start and stocks will sell off sharply the first few days. Then food buying will appear and an advance will start. The oils, rubbers, chemicals, and airplanes will lead the advance, reaching top around the 12th to 15th. Around the 18th to 24th some rails, electrics and steels will advance. Some trouble in foreign countries, probably Germany or France, will have an unfavourable effect and will help to start the decline here. Watch for top; sell out long stocks and go short. Quite a decline will take place to the end of the month.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 12th to 15th; extreme lows around the 5th to 7th and 30th. Minor moves: - January 2nd decline should start; 5th to 7th bottom of decline. Heavy buying should start around this time and a sharp advance should take place-making top around the 12th. 19th bottom of decline; 24th top of rally; then follows heavy selling and a sharp decline, reaching bottom around the 30th.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 15th; extreme low around the 5th to 7th and 30th. Minor moves - January 2nd top, when decline should start; 5th to 7th bottom for quite a rally; 15th top of strong rally, when another decline should start; 21st bottom of decline; 24th top of rally. From this top a big decline should take place reaching low for the month around the 30th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - the dates marked “XX” are the most important and indicate a major change in trend. You should watch for important changes around these dates. The dates marked “X” only indicate minor changes in trend, which will only last for a few days. – January 5th – 7th XX, 11th – 12th X, 25th – 26th XX, 31st X.

FEBRUARY

Business will fall off and we will hear some discouraging reports. The Federal Reserve Bank will make some change or threaten to curb speculation. There will be talk of new banking laws, which may be adverse to speculation. The general list of high - priced stocks will decline this month, altho the market will be mixed. Sugars, rubbers and late movers will have some advances. The railroad, airplane, radio and electric stocks will rally from every decline. Around the 12th to 13th of the month some of the oils, rubbers and sugars will be quite strong. The general list of old time leaders; however, will work lower from every little rally.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 13th to 14th and extreme low around the 28th. Minor moves: 1st to 4th advance; then follows a decline to the 8th, when bottom should be reached for another quick rally; 13th to 14th top, sell out and go short. Expect heavy liquidation and a sharp, severe decline reaching bottom around the 28th for a moderate rally.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 15th and extreme low around the 28th. Minor moves - 1st to 5th advance and make top for a moderate decline; 9th bottom of decline; expect quick rally in some rails, reaching high around the 15th, followed by a sharp decline making bottom around the 28th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 9th to 12th XX; 19th to 20th XX; 23rd to 24th X, 28th X

MARCH

Mr. Hoover will take the office of President of the United States this month and in the early part of the month there will be a demonstration in stocks and quite an advance, but it will not hold and a sharp, severe decline will take place in many stocks before the end of the month. Some trouble is likely to come up in connection with Spain or Mexico, which will upset the market. Airplane stocks will be quite strong during the dates indicated for advances to take place. The oils, sugars and chemicals will hold up better than other socks. Traction stocks will be strong and there is likely to be some development in connection with the subway fare, which will cause an advance in New York traction stocks. The steels, motors, rails and electrical issues will break during the early and latter part of the month.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 4th to 5th; extreme low around the 28th to 29th, although some stocks will reach low for the month around the 14th to 15th. Minor moves: 1st to 5th strong advance. The market will be discounting President Hoover’s inauguration. A sharp decline fo1lows, making first bottom around the 14th to 15th; then a quick rally in many stocks reaching top around the 20th, followed heavy liquidation and a sharp decline to around the 28th or 29th when final bottom will be reached for another bull campaign. This is the time to buy the stocks in strong position as they will have sharp advances and work higher into the summer.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 4th to 5th; extreme low around the 9th to 11th and 28th - 29th. Minor moves: - 1st to 5th strong market. Stocks behind the market will lead the advance. From the top around the 4th to 5th quite a sharp decline will take place, culminating around the 9th to 11th; then follows a moderate rally reaching top around the 16th; then another decline, making final bottom around the 28th to 29th when you should buy the stocks in strong position for an advance which will last into the early days of May.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 4th to 5th X; 10th to 11th XX; 16th X; 21st to 23rd X; 28th to 29th XX.

APRIL

The public will again come into the market on a large scale and there will be a wild wave of speculation, especially in the oils, coppers, rubbers, sugars and airplane stocks. The chemicals, airplanes and radio stocks will have rapid advances. Some action by the Government on law passed will cause a break, which will run down to around the 15th. Money rates will be quite high. 16th to 30th - - General news will be more favourable and stocks will have better advances. Foreign trade will increase, especially with the South American countries.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme low for the month around the 12th to 13th and extreme high around the 20th to 22nd. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd top of quick advance; 12th to 13th bottom for another big advance; 20th to 22nd top of sharp rally; then fol­lows a decline making bottom around the 26th to 27th when stocks should be bought for another advance, running to the end of the month and continuing into May.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme low for the month around the 10th to 11th and extreme high around the 20th to 22nd, although they will be quite strong and some will make higher just at the end of the month. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd - 4th quick advance; then follows a moderate decline, reaching bottom around the 10th to 11th, when a sharp advance will take place, stocks running up fast and making top around the 20th to 22nd, followed by a re­action to the 25th; then a strong advance to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 2nd to 3rd X; 9th to 10th X; 13th to 15th XX; 21st to 23rd XX; 26th to 27th X.

MAY

This is a month for great activity in the stock market. We will hear some very bullish news about general business conditions. There will be some large combines, consummation of mergers; large financial deals will take place and there will be much talk of continued prosperity, all of which will cause the public to buy stocks at the top. General news will be very bullish and stocks will fluctuate over wide ranges. Some stocks will reach high around the early part of the month and have a break around the middle of the month. Where will be a boom in rubbers, sugars, oils, airplane, radio and electrical stocks? These will be the leaders. Watch for top and sell out. Do not overstay your market, as a big break will take place in June.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 29th to 31st and extreme low around the 9th to 10th. Minor moves: - 1st to 4th quick rally, making top for a sharp reaction; 9th to 10th bottom of decline; buy for another sharp advance; 16th top of rally, but only for a minor reaction; 20th - bottom of reaction. Stocks in strong position will have a rapid advance between the 10th and 29th. Watch for top around this time.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd to 4th; extreme low around the 11th to 13th, although some issues will go to extreme high around the end of the month. Minor moves; - 1st to 3rd strong market, making top around 3rd to 4th. Then follows a decline, making bottom around the 11th to 13th, followed by an advance making first top around the 25th for a moderate reaction to the 28th; then rally to the end of month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 3rd to 4th X; 9th to 10th XX; 22nd to 23rd X; 29th to 31st XX.

JUNE

A sharp decline and heavy liquidation in many stocks is indicated for this month. There will be war in foreign countries or war rumours. Strikes at home as well as abroad. Crop news will be unfavourable. Storms or earthquakes on the southern border and in Mexico will do damage and help to unsettle the market. The outlook for the summer business will be very much mixed. One of the major cycles and time factors runs out this month and a very important change in trend is indicated. High priced stocks will have rapid declines and many stocks will make extreme high for the year. The tin, oils and agricultural stocks and also the chemicals will break badly after reaching top in the early part of the month. Motors will also decline sharply.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around June 1st; extreme low around the 22nd to 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 2nd advance and make top for a big decline; 10th to 11th bottom of sharp decline; then follows a moderate rally reaching top around the 17th, followed by heavy liquidation and sharp decline making bottom 22nd to 24th. From the 24th to the end of the month many stocks will have quite a rally.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd; extreme low around the 10th to 11th and 28th to 29th.

The rails will not move in a very wide range this month, except a few of the very high - priced issues. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance; 4th to 10th - 11th sharp decline; then follows a moderate rally, reaching top around the 21st to 22nd followed by liquida­tion and lower prices, making bottom for the month 28th to 29th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - June 1st to 2nd XX; 7th to 10th X; 21st to 23rd XX; 28th X.

JULY

Another advance will take place this month and many stocks will have sharp rallies and reach the final high for the year. The airplane companies will prosper and their stocks will advance. Electrical and chemical stocks will also record sharp advances. Pools will rush up stocks as fast as they can to unload. The late movers will be brought into line while distribution is tak­ing place in the old time leaders. Sugars and rubbers should have some sharp advances. A very important major time factor ends at this time and indicates the starting of a big prolonged bear campaign. Remember that the last high for the year well occur in many stocks. A great deluge and panicky decline will follow the top at this time, resulting in a "Black Friday" in September. There are likely to be some labour troubles and strikes in the west and south, which will interfere with the business outlook.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 20th; extreme low around the 9th to 10th. Minor moves 1st to 3rd strong market, making top for a quick decline; 9th to 10th bottom of sharp decline; then follows a rapid advance, making top on the 20th; decline reaching bottom on the 22nd; fol­lowed by a strong market to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS: - The rails will move in a comparatively narrow range this month. Extreme low is indicated around the 9th to 10th and 22nd; extreme high around the 15th. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance; then follows a decline making bottom around the 9th to 10th; a quick rally to the 15th; then follows a sharp decline reaching bottom on the 22nd, followed by an advance to the end of July.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 3rd to 5th XX; 10th X; 21st to 24th XX; 30th to 31st X.

AUGUST

A few of the late movers will advance this month and reach final high. Chemical stocks will be among the last to advance. The steels and oils will be strong for a while and the sugars and rubbers will make final top. Unfavourable news will develop which will start sharp declines and the long bull campaign will come to a sudden end. Money rates will be high and final top will be reached for a big bear campaign. Stand from under! Don't get caught in the great deluge! Remember it is too late to sell when everyone is trying to sell. There will be electric storms, which will cause damage to crops, and heavy losses are indicated thru fires.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 7th to 8th; extreme low 29th to 30th. Minor moves: - The first of the month starts in strong and prices run up fast reaching top around the 7th to 8th; then heavy selling will take place and a sharp decline will follow, bottom being reached around the 16th to 17th, but only for a small rally; 23rd to 24th top of rally, followed by heavy liquidation and lower prices, making bottom for the month around the 29th to 30th.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 8th to 9th, although some industrial stocks and rails among the late movers will hold up and not make top until the 14th to 15th as indicated on Curve #2. Extreme low for the month for rails indicated around the 30th to 31st. Minor moves: - 1st - advance will start and prices will run up fast, making top around the 8th to 9th; then follows a fast decline, reaching bottom around the 20th to 2lst followed by moderate rally to around the 25th; then a sharp decline making low for the month on the 30th to 31st.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 7th to 8th XX; 16th to 17th X; 23rd to 24th XX; 29th to 30th XX.

SEPTEMBER

One of the sharpest declines of the year is indicated. There will be loss of confidence by investors and the public will try to get out after it is too late. Storms will damage crops and the general business outlook will become cloudy. War news will upset the market and unfavourable developments in foreign countries. A "Black Friday" is indicated and a panicky decline is stocks with only small rallies. The short side will prove the most profitable. You should sell short and pyramid on the way down.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd to 3rd; extreme low 27th to 28th. Minor moves: - 2nd to 3rd top of moderate rally. Heavy liquidation will break out around this time. Unfavourable news will develop and a sharp, severe decline will take place, reaching first bottom around the 16th to 17th, but only for a small rally. 20th to 21st top of moderate rally followed by another heavy wave of liquidation, carrying prices down to extreme low levels around the 27th to 28th, from which level a moderate rally will follow.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 3rd; extreme low at the end of the month. Minor moves: - 1st to 3rd advance. Liquidation will start around this time and a sharp decline will follow, carrying prices down to around the 16th - 7th; then a moderate rally on short covering with top around the 23rd - 24th, followed by a sharp decline running down to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - September 2nd to 3rd XX; 16th to 17th XX; 21st to 24th X; 27th to 28th XX.

0CTOBER

General business conditions will be getting worse and the country will suffer from the over - speculation. Money rates will be high and bankers will call loans, causing some sharp declines in stocks after rallies. The chemical, electrical and airplane stocks will hold up and have some quick rallies.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high around the 18th to 19th; extreme low around the 8th to 9th and 26th to 28th. Minor moves: - October 2nd top of small rally from which a sharp decline will take place; 8th to 9th bottom of decline, when a better advance will take place, especially in the stocks in strong position; 18th to 19th top of rally. Stocks in weak position will have a sharp decline, running down to the 26th to 28th; then. follows a moderate rally to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 10th to 11th; extreme low 23rd - 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 4th decline and make bottom for a moderate rally; 10th to 11th top of rally; then follows a heavy wave of liquidation and lower prices making bottom around the 23rd to 24th, followed by a moderate advance to the end of the month.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 2nd to 4th XX; 8th to 9th X; 18th to 20th XX; 26th to 28th X.

N0VEMBER

The oils, chemicals and rubbers will have a final advance this month and make top for another decline. Business conditions will be growing more unfavourable. There are likely to be earthquakes in Mexico or California. This will disturb the stock market and depress business. This is the month for war news from foreign countries and some great leader abroad will show his power. The latter part of the month is very unfavourable and some sharp declines will take place. But the airplane, radio and electrical companies and some of the rails will have an advance around the 10th to 22nd.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd to 4th; extreme low around the 23rd to 25th. Minor moves: - follows heavy selling and a sharp decline, reaching bottom around the 11th to 12th, but only for a moderate rally; 18th to 19th top of advance. From this level there will be another sharp, severe decline carrying prices down to low levels around the 23rd to 25th. Then follows a moderate rally to the end of the month.

RAILROAD STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around, the 21st to 22nd; extreme low around the 27th to 28th.Minor moves; - 1st to 2nd top of moderate rally; then follows a decline, reaching bottom around the 9th to 11th; then a quick rally, mak­ing top around the 21st to 22nd followed by heavy liquidation and a sharp decline, making bottom around the 27th to 28th.

Dates to watch for change in trend: - 1st to 2nd XX; 11th to 13th X; 17th to 19th XX; 24th to 26th X.

DECEMBER

Our business in some of the foreign countries will increase. Speculation will shift from stocks to commodities. The U. S. Government is threatened with great opposition, if not danger of war. General business outlook will grow very much more unfavourable Panicky declines in stocks will take place.

INDUSTRIAL STOCKS indicate extreme high for the month around the 2nd; extreme low around the 23rd to 24th. Minor moves: - 1st to 2nd advance; then follows a sharp, severe decline and heavy liquidation with only small rallies indicated lasting one to two days, reaching extreme low around the 23rd to 24th; then follows a quick rally reaching top on the 28th followed by decline to the 31st.