After WW2, East Germany (or DDR) was established in 1949
In the cycle starting with Jia Zi year 1924, this was the year #25
So we will use this as the major starting event in our diagram
In 1961 the famous Berlin Wall was erected.
This was year # 37 in the cycle.
Could we have predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall and subsequent end of the DDR in 1989 ?
1989 was a #65 year in this cycle.
This is the diagram:
#25 is marked in orange.
It is the start of DDR.
Construction (#37) and fall (#65) of the symbolic Berlin Wall are in blue circled years, on the same line nicely opposite the
#25 starting year.
We can see the system at work here.
If the Berlin Wall had not come down in 1989, then it may have been a wait till 1997 (#73), the next year that was square to the start #25
The “Third Reich” was officially declared by Hitler in 1933, shortly after he won elections.
In the cycle from Jia Zi year 1924, this is the year #9.
Now let's see how we could have used our diagram to pinpoint important next years:
Year #9 is marked by red circle. It is the start of nazi Germany.
Proceeding from #9, we now count forwards till we meet the first year that is square to our starting point #9
It is #13, so this is 4 years after the start, which means 1937.
Not very much happened in 1937, but it marks the year Germany started annexing other territories.
We continue forward and the next important year we find is #17.
This number is opposite to the start year #9.
Year #17 is 8 years after the start, which means 1941.
In 1941 the WW2 was already underway and the German armies occupied their maximum territory by then.
Most of Europe was under their control, and in Russia they had advanced to the gates of Moscow.
But that year marked the main turning point.
Moscow did not fall, and soon the German armies went in retreat.
We continue forward in the diagram and the next important year we encounter is #21, again square to the start position 9.
Of course #21 is year 1945 in this cycle.
It was the end of Hitler and his nazi Germany.
An exploration into the structure of time.
By D.H. Van den Berghe
When we look at the world around us, we see change almost everywhere. In some places change seems to be slow, while in other parts of the world there are significant events that become turning points in the history of a country or even entire continent. We see such events every year in different parts of the world, but there is no obvious regular pattern as to when these events happen.
Various forms of astrology try to understand and predict these changes within the framework of cycles. Western astrology uses cycles based on the movement of the planets in our solar system.
Chinese forms of astrology work with fixed cycles of 9, 10, 12 and 60 years, and even longer..
Other cultures have still different systems.
And while each of these systems has merit and useful applications, none of them has been used very successfully in predicting the major turning points in a country's or region's history.
It is as if we are missing some important key. In this article I will present a method that may provide a new key, and allow us to predict upcoming changes more accurately.
Could we have predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the September 11 attacks, or the Tiananmen Square massacre? All these examples and more, will be explored further on..
Gann's Square of Nine
The tool we are going to use in this study is called 'The Square of Nine' and was developed by W.D. Gann
W.D. Gann was a legendary trader in the stock markets, and he used this tool to make his predictions, which turned out to be amazingly accurate quite often. You can just google for “Gann square of nine” and you will easily find more about it. Although he did not publicly share the full details of his methods, it was known he used and studied this 'Square of Nine' intensively, and there were several copies of it in his office.
Here is a picture of such a Square of Nine:
The construction of the diagram is so easy, a child can do it.
You start with 1 in the middle and just spiral outwards, either going clockwise or counterclockwise (which doesn't matter for the use of this tool), filling up all the spaces..2, 3, 4..
In this example we stop at 361 in the lower right corner, but of course you could go on with 362 next to it , and then continue further upwards in the counterclockwise direction used here.
You can make it as large as you want, but this size is sufficient for our purposes in this article.
While this simple diagram looks like nothing very special at first sight, it does have rather unusual numerical relationships hidden in it.
For example if you start from the center 1 and go diagonally towards the bottom right corner, then you find all the squares of the odd numbers lining up:
9 = 3*3
25 = 5*5
49 = 7*7
81 = 9*9
121 = 11*11
and so on till infinity.. See that?
In the other direction, starting with the 4 above our center 1, we find all the squares of the even number lining up in direction of the top left corner.
4 = 2*2
16 = 4*4
36 = 6*6
64 = 8*8
100 = 10*10
and so on till infinity..
This is what makes this diagram unusual. Much more could be told about it, but that is beyond the scope this article.
Gann used it to study the movements in the stock markets, and what he discovered was that major events, climaxes and turning points had a strong tendency to occur at times that are in a “square relationship” to an earlier important date, event or turning point. To see what that means we have to turn to our diagram:
Suppose we have a major event in some 51st year (or day) (from where to count will be explained later). We have marked position #51 in clear orange in our diagram. Now what we do first is draw a straight line from #51 right through the center #1. This line will cross through all the years that are either conjunct or in opposition with our starting #51 event.
Then we draw a second line through the #1 center and exactly square on the first line. This line marks all the years that have a 90 degree square relationship to our starting #51. We can see that only a rather small selection of the numbers is on these lines, we have marked some with blue circles. Gann discovered that major events and changes happened much more frequently in the years that are on these lines. So, after year 51, the next major window of change would be year 59 (thus 8 years after the first major event).
Next year 67, then 75, 84, 93, 103, 113, 124, 136, 148,...
Notice how the first interval is 8 years, but expands and there is already a 12 year gap between 136 and 148.
That's what makes this system so different from any fixed length cycle.
And that could be the reason why sometimes our cycles seem to work and sometimes not.
I hope the basic approach is clear from above picture, but we have one question left before we can start using it.
How do we count the years or days? What is the starting point?
Gann himself reportedly used the Spring Equinox day as start and counted from there.
He mostly worked with daily numbers for his stock market forecasts, so that made sense.
But if we want to work on larger scale with yearly numbers, then we need some starting year.
Fortunately the Chinese astrology provides us.
In Chinese astrology it is the Yang Wood Rat year (Jia Zi) that marks the start of every new 60 year cycle. The most recent Jia Zi year was 1984, before that we had 1924.
These Jia Zi years also mark the start of a new major 20 year Period in Feng Shui.
So they are the first logical choice if we want to use Chinese astrology in combination with Gann's Square of Nine. How this works out you can see from the following examples.
Rise and fall of the Soviet Union
The October revolution in 1917 was the major event that marked the fall of the tzars and soon led to formation of the communist Soviet Union.
Year 1917 is in the cycle that started with Jia Zi year 1864. So it is year #53
In the late 1980's reforms started but it was not until 1991 that the Soviet Union was officially abolished.
Counting from 1864 cycle the year 1991 is #127
Looking in our diagram we see that #127 is exactly conjunct with the starting event #53.
So this was a year that strongly favored major change in the country.
The Markets True Vital Signs:
Support and resistance are important indicators affecting chart patterns. Read on to see why. Should you consider support and resistance as indicators and meaningful markers in your planning of the trades? Unless you have a crystal ball and can tell definitely where the markets are going at any given time you don’t need to use support and resistance. But if you do not have a crystal ball, then you might consider them as one of the most important markers or indicators affecting your trades and want to learn all you can on how to measure, calculate, and use them.
When applying support and resistance, you can actually begin to predict general areas of market travel and many times very specific areas the market will go to or through. They will tell you how high a market may climb or fall and what levels or turning points to look for. Once you learn how to calculate them and with some paper trading practice you can predict what the markets may or may do. It is like reading the future in your charts before it happens. But what is support and resistance?
We have talked about it in other articles and I gave examples of them in my basic chart reading articles. One definition of support is that: Support will occur when an increase in demand for a commodity builds strength under a price. Like a floor. The opposite of support is resistance:
An example of this is when the selling pressure of a commodity becomes so strong that the buyers are overmatched and continuation of the market prices upward move is halted.
Gann and his magic numbers?
W. D. Gann a very famous trader of some years ago described many types of numbers that he calculated on a daily basis. He worked mainly with percentages based on the dollar and the number of months and weeks of the year. For this exercise we will use only the percentages based on the dollar. Some of his more popular numbers were:
6.25%
12.50%
18.75%
25%
33%
37.5%
50%
62.5%
75%
87.5%
and 100% with variations and combinations of these numbers.
He also wrote about the rule of 8, 9, 10 and even numbers. 20, 30, 40% etc. These last few were his whole number or round number formulas.
Fibonacci Numbers?
Another popular set of numbers are the Fibonacci percentages, these are also universal numbers that when used and applied to chart movements they can be very revealing. Commodity markets and for that matter Stocks move back and forth through these numbers with uncanny accuracy and frequency. Here are a small but a popular segment of Fibonacci percentage numbers: .236, .382, .50, .618: In the examples that I have chosen to illustrate for you is a recent trending market converting to a non trending market or what I describe as a ranging market. The market I have chosen is the Australian dollar.
Market Example Australian Dollar:
On Sept2 2003 the Australian dollar makes a low of 61.31 “Not Shown” and begins an upward climb. “To the far left of the chart.” On February18, 2004 the market makes a high of 77.65 and proceeds to decline over the course of the next few months to a bottom or low of 67.45 on May17th 2004. These two extremes which I did not show on the chart because of my printing parameters and positioning of the sample chart. You can refer to a May 2004 Australian $ chart to verify this move. The first climb took five months to make its ascent. And a 90-day time frame to make it back down to the bottom. Time is a market indicator you should be come aware of.
For this study we take the low of September 61.31 the position to the far let of the chart from a high of 77.65 February18th 2004 for a total Range of 16.34 points. This is the range of the high and low. This number will then be multiplied by the different percentages of the Gann numbers I gave earlier which produces the resulting percentages to be considered as either support or resistance. These numbers will be subtracted from the high as the market moves to a lower position, and added to the low of a market heading up, and for the sake of the example only we will round the numbers up or down to the nearest 10th such as 75.17 will be 75.20 etc.
Now look at the chart example and locate the support numbers as we move down. Locate these percentages on your chart. These support / resistance numbers can be used as target objectives or strategies, or buy and sell points or protective stop loss placements etc. It will take your personal touch to refine and define the points. You will see that the market passes through, stops at or pivots on these percentages. And virtually any market can be calculated and projected in this manor. The foreign currencies as well as many other markets and stocks lend themselves to the 10% rule which W. D. Gann often wrote about.
The Numbers:
0) Top level = 77.65
1) 12.5% level =75.70
2) 25% level = 73.60
3) 33% level =72.30
4) 37.5 level =71.50
5) 50% level =69.00
6) 62.5 level =67.00 Base support
7) 66% level = not reached
8) 75% level = not reached
9) 87.5 level = not reached
10) 100 level = not reached
Now considering what you have learned here in this very short exercise, is there a reason you should not take a few minutes to plot your support and resistance for the market you are planning to trade. This same high / Low subtraction or addition is used with virtually all chart calculations. These calculations may make all the difference between a winning and losing trade.
Back to our study. In this example you see when the market moves back up it comes in contact with previous resistance calculated from the markets earlier movements and either stops or is turned in the opposite direction. You use the same calculation methods over and over, from range to range. The difference is whether you apply your percentage point to the low of the market or subtract them from the high of the market. These same percentage numbers will be good over and over or until the market makes a new high or low. Each individual swing will also have its own set of percentage calculations for use and consideration. You can also recalculate these changing percentages within smaller ranges or cycles.
If the market stays in a ranging pattern, you can draw upper and lower trend line limits which looks like channels and swing trade the market. These markets can become very profitable when you learn to pre plan your moves and you can learn to preplan by paper trading. You can add trend lines, candlestick patterns, and other technical analysis tools then you have built a complete trading system that is all yours and it did not take a $2000.00 piece of soft ware, or a $2,400.00 workshop to learn. You can do most of these calculations with your straight edge, a hand-held calculator and a pencil, or a colored pen. I use RED for short positions and Green or Blue for long positions. Not all markets will lend themselves to perfect trend lines. But they do follow support and resistance.
Try this same chart exercise with the Fibonacci numbers. This market example gapped a number of times, so drawing trend lines would be difficult. By using another tool the 5 day 10 and 20 day moving average would have given you a reasonable signal for buy and sell points if you chose to trade this market.
There is no indicator that will tell you when the market is going to change direction especially with a market that is gapping. A good knowledge of the candle stick patterns will help in some respects. Gaps are covered in our trading manual: The commodity Trading Workbook: Some indicators will give you a good feel of when the market will change and you simply need to work with them for a while. Look over our free article about the DMI system and put several of these indicators together and see what happens. But do not mix so many together that you become disorganized or confused about their function, if that happens you forget to look closely at key aspects of a market and then you make the wrong decision.
Specific Rule:
Price always moves slower at the lower levels of a market and faster as the market gets higher.
“By Jim Mason of the Commoditydoctor.com. Please visit Jim’s website at www.commoditydoctor.com for additional trading material and resources “
The following excerpts are from a letter that financial astrologer W.D.Gann wrote in 1954 in which he talks specifically about the planets relationship to coffee prices.He doesn't spell out the whole secret behind his timing but never the less it is very interesting and is also important as confirmation that astrology was behind his famous price and time forecasts. 1954:
March 24-Heliocentric Jupiter enters Cancer.
June 24- Heliocentric Jupiter is 120 degrees of Saturn.
April 12th Sun 60 degrees of Jupiter Geocentric.
April 13th Jupiter 135 degrees of Saturn Geocentric.
April 15th Sun 180 degrees of Neptune Geocentric.
April 16th Jupiter 60 degrees of Pluto Geocentric.
April 26th Jupiter 120 degrees of Neptune Geocentric.
April 26th Sun 180 degrees of Saturn Geocentric.
The month of April is very important.There should be great activity and wide swings in prices due to these aspects. GEOCENTRIC MAPS MOVEMENTS from low prices on coffee-- 1931 April 16th to August 7 1953- Mars has made 12 round trips.
1954 October 29- Mars will be opposite or 180 degrees from its place on April 16 1931.
1936 October 1st to to September 19th 1953- Mars made 9 round trips of 360 degrees each.
1954 Dec 9th- Mars will be 9 and a half round trips or opposite its place Oct.1 1936.
1940 May 15 to June 12 1953- Mars made 7 round trips or complete cycles.
1954 April 9th - Mars is 7 and a half cycles and is opposite its place on May 15 1940.
Due to the retrograde position of Mars it will again be 7 and a half July 7th and Aug.17
1954 or the third time in opposition to its own place which is very important. 1940
August 19 to September 15 1953- Mars had completed 7 round trips. Note low on coffee at that date.
1954 December 4th - Mars 7 and a half round trips or opposite its own place on Aug. 19
1940. If coffee starts to decline between March 22 and 24 1954 it should continue down to around April 15 when the adverse aspects of Jupiter to Saturn and the Sun to Neptune are completed.From these dates you should watch for the possibility of a rally up to April 16 1954 when Jupiter is 120 degrees of Neptune and the Sun 130 of Saturn.This might cause a quick rally followed by a sharp quick decline.
By studying all of the data outlined above and applying it to coffee you will be able to learn more about what causes changes in trend.
So there you have it, straight from W.D.Gann himself In my last article I did an astrological analysis of W.D.Ganns May Soybean chart based on the actual notations that he made on that chart.That dealt with Jupiters planetary ingress (Jupiter changing signs in the zodiac) and the price targets that this generated.Interestingly enough this same method as spelt out in my book Super Timing nailed the low on Soybeans again this year on July 9th.
In Super Timing I took all of Ganns trades that he mentioned in his last promotional booklet entitled -Why money is lost on commodities and stocks and how to make profits plus numerous other trades that I gathered from other sources.By doing this I was able to find the one common timing factor that linked all these trades plus price targets using one of W.D. Ganns calculators that I had discovered previously.I have called this the 1908 price target method named after the date that Gann said that he made his greatest discovery.
To my knowledge this is the first time that anyone has been able to unify all of Ganns
predictions using the same method.It solves his famous wheat prediction where Gann said wheat must trade at $1.20 by the close of trading on the 30th of September 1909 plus all the other price targets mentioned in The Ticker interview. It also solves the trades he made in 1954 at the end of his career on the coffee market using the same price and time method. The reason I think that his booklet Why money is lost on commodities and stocks and how to make profits was an important place to begin research on Ganns method is because it was written when he was 76 years old (one year before his death in 1955) and it was the perfect place for him to sum up what he considered to be the most important aspects of his work. Just to give you another idea of how planets can time the markets I will tell you another technique that I picked up when analyzing the sequence of trades that make up Robert Gordons great campaign in cotton from Ganns book The Tunnel thru the air.
Gann writes,
June 25th 1927.
October cotton declined to 16.80 Bought 500 October at 16.83 and 500 December at 17.15. He figured that it would run up for about thirty days.
July 25th 1927.
Sold 500 October cotton at 19.00 Sold 500 December at 19.20 Went short 500 December at 19.20. Decline followed as he expected.
To understand the reason for the timing of these trades just imagine a triangle and at each corner there is a planet.This is called a grand trine. What is happening in this case is that there are two slow planets that don't move much and they are 120 degrees apart(trine) Then a fast planet, Mercury in this case comes around so that it forms a triangle with the other planets (at the low of the market) it moves away so that there is no grand trine anymore but a month later the Sun comes around to where Mercury use to be and formsthe triangle again (at the high of the market).
This simple technique works but there is more to it than this and there were also price targets involved but everything is covered in depth in Super Timing as well the tools to do this work. As well as Ganns trades I've looked at examples from recent markets and find that the time and price target methods are still working well.To help people learn these techniques quickly I've also added a tutor that I originally wrote for the first purchasers of the book and put up as a website for them.This tutor is now at the end of the book and covers time cycles from recent S+P Soybean and Beanoil futures,these techniques can be used on every market. I havepurposely not covered any material presented elsewhere or rehashed the usual Gann knowledge that is in the public domain.
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](http://img.zemanta.com/reblog_e.png?x-id=b51c2c32-4877-4a77-a3a8-896b748788a8)